Climate 2050 — destinations in the warming world

Where will your favorite travel destinations be 25 years from now? We project each city's likely 2050 climate using IPCC AR6 SSP2-4.5 (the moderate-warming scenario) — adjusted by region and latitude. The numbers are an approximation, not a forecast — but the direction is clear.

How this is computed (and why it's only an estimate)

For each city, we take the current climate average and add a region-specific projected warming rate from the IPCC AR6 WG1 report, scenario SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions — roughly current trajectory). We also apply Arctic amplification — high-latitude cities warm faster than the global average — by adding up to +1°C for cities above 65° latitude.

This is a coarse approximation. Real local effects (urban heat islands, ocean currents, regional precipitation shifts) aren't captured. Summer warming usually exceeds winter warming in mid-latitudes, which our model does account for. Treat these numbers as directional, not forecasts.

What changes for travelers

• Mediterranean summers become significantly hotter — June-August in Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey gets uncomfortable for outdoor sightseeing midday. Spring + autumn become the new high seasons.
• Northern Europe becomes more pleasant in summer (less cold), but suffers wider rainfall variability.
• Tropical destinations see less change in temperature but bigger changes in rainfall patterns + storm intensity.
• Ski destinations in mid-latitude Alps, Pyrenees, Rockies see shortened seasons + less reliable snow at lower elevations.
• Arctic + sub-Arctic (Iceland, Tromsø, Reykjavík, Svalbard) get more travel-friendly but with bigger ecological consequences.